Charles Moss • Agricultural Risk Analysis and Decision Making ^*

Purpose: This course is intended to review the conceptual framework and research methods for analysis of decision-making under risk by agricultural producers. The course covers expected utility theory, risk programming, stochastic dominance, dynamic decision models, and state preference theory..

Textbooks:

Moss, Charles B. (2010) Risk, Uncertainty, and the Agricultural Firm , Hackensack, New Jersey: World Scientific Publishing Company.

Outline

Overview/Introduction
- Lecture I: Course Overview Overheads
- Lecture II: An Overview of Decision Making Under Risk and Uncertainty pdf Notes
Basics of Probability Theory
- Lecture III: Probability Theory — A Mathematical Basis for Making Decisions under Risk and Uncertainty Overview
- Lecture IV: Conditional Probability and Distribution Functions Overheads
- Lecture V: Expected Values and Moments pdf Notes
- Lecture VI: Moment Generating Function and Method of Moments Overheads
- Lecture VII: Maximum Likelihood and Examples Overheads
- Lecture VIII: Empirical Maximum Likelihood Overheads
- Lecture IX: Martingales and Random Walks Overheads
Expected Utility
- Lecture X: Expected Utility Overheads
- Lecture XI: Von Neumann-Morgenstern Overheds
- Lecture XII: Von Neumann-Morgenstern — Proof I Overheads
- Lecture XIII: Von Neumann-Morgenstern — Proof II Overheads
- Lecture XIV: Closed Form Solutions to Expected Utility Overheads
- Lecture XV: Meyer's Location Scale Overheads
- Lecture XVI: Problems with Expected Utility Overheads
Risk Aversion
- Lecture XVII: Risk Aversion in the Large and Small Overheads
- Lecture XVIII: Utility Functions, Risk Aversion Coefficients and Transformations Overheads
- Lecture XIX: Eliciting Risk Aversion Coefficients Overheads
Optimal Portfolios
- Lecture XX: Portfolio and Risk Analsysis Overheds
- Lecture XXI: Derivation of the Expected Value-Variance Frontier without a Risk-free Asset Overheads
- Lecture XXII: Derivation of the Expected Value-Variance Frontier with a Risk-Free Asset Overheads
Risk Programming
- Lecture XXIII: The Farm Portfolio Problem Overheads
- Lecture XXIV: The Farm Portfolio Problem — MOTAD and Direct Expected Utility Overheads
- Lecture XXV: The Farm Portfolio Problem — MOTAD and Discrete Sequential Stochastic Programming Overheads
Stochastic Dominance
- Lecture XXVI: Overview of Stochastic Dominance Overheads
- Lecture XXVII: Development of FSD and SSD Overheads
- Lecture XXVIII: Increasing Risk Overheads
- Lecture XXIX: Implications of Increasing Spreads Overheads
- Lecture XXX: Generalized Stochastic Dominance with Respect to a Function Overheads
- Lecture XXXI: Applications of Stochastic Dominance in Agriculture Overheads
Market Models of Risk
- Lecture XXXII: Value of Information Overheads
- Lecture XXXIII: The Capital Asset Pricing Model Overheads
- Lecture XXXIV: Capital Asset Pricing Model and the Arbitrage Pricing Theorm Overheads
- Lecture XXXV: The Arbitrage Pricing Model Overheads
- Lecture XXXVI: The Arbitrage Pricing Model (Part 2) Overheads
Option Models for Risk
- Lecture XXXVII: Introduction to Options and Futures Overheads
- Lecture XXXVIII: Black Scholes Overheads
- Lecture XXXIX: Real Options Overheads
- Lecture XXXX: Crop Insurance Overheads
State Contingent Production Models
- Lecture XXXXI: State Contingent Production Models Overheads
- Lecture XXXXII: State Contingent Distance Functions Overheads
^* This material represents teaching material designed and provided by Charles B. Moss and is not the affiliated with the University of Florida. The University of Florida is not responsible for its content.

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Charles Moss • Agricultural Risk Analysis and Decision Making *

Outline

Charles Moss • Agricultural Risk Analysis and Decision Making ^*